# Uncertainty Quantification (UQ)#

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an emerging field in applied mathematics that aims to quantify uncertainties in mathematical models as a result from error propagation in the modeling process. This is especially important since we use the model, i.e., the potential, to predict material properties that are not used in the training process. Thus, UQ process is especially important to assess the reliability of these out-of-sample predictions.

In UQ process, we first quantify the uncertainty of the model parameters. Having found the parametric uncertainty, then we can propagate the uncertainty of the parameters and get the uncertainty of the material properties of interest, e.g., by evaluating the ensemble that is obtained from sampling the distribution of the parameters. As the first uncertainty propagation is more involved, KLIFF implements tools to quantify the uncertainty of the parameters.

## MCMC#

The Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is the UQ method of choice for interatomic potentials. The distribution of the parameters is given by the posterior . By Bayes’ theorem where is the likelihood (which encodes the information learned from the data) and is the prior distribution. Then, some MCMC algorithm is used to sample the posterior and the distribution of the parameters is inferred from the distribution of the resulting samples.

The likelihood function is given by The inclusion of the sampling temperature is to account for model inadequacy, or bias, in the potential [Kurniawan2022]. Frederiksen et al. (2004) [Frederiksen2004] suggest to estimate the bias by setting the temperature to where is the value of the loss function evaluated at the best fit parameters and is the number of tunable parameters.

Kurniawan2022

Kurniawan, Y., Petrie, C.L., Williams Jr., K.J., Transtrum, M.K., Tadmor, E.B., Elliott, R.S., Karls, D.S., Wen, M., 2022. Bayesian, frequentist, and information geometric approaches to parametric uncertainty quantification of classical empirical interatomic potentials. J. Chem. Phys. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0084988

Frederiksen2004

S. L. Frederiksen, K. W. Jacobsen, K. S. Brown, and J. P. Sethna, “Bayesian Ensemble Approach to Error Estimation of Interatomic Potentials,” Phys. Rev. Lett., vol. 93, no. 16, p. 165501, Oct. 2004, doi: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.93.165501.

KurniawanKLIFFUQ

Kurniawan, Y., Petrie, C.L., Transtrum, M.K., Tadmor, E.B., Elliott, R.S., Karls, D.S., Wen, M., 2022. Extending OpenKIM with an Uncertainty Quantification Toolkit for Molecular Modeling. arXiv:2206.00578 [physics.comp-ph]

## MCMC implementation#

In KLIFF, the UQ tools are implemented in uq. In the currect version, only MCMC sampling is implemented, with the integration of other UQ methods will be added in the future.

For the MCMC sampling, KLIFF adopts parallel-tempered MCMC (PTMCMC) methods, via the ptemcee Python package, as a way to perform MCMC sampling with several different temperatures. Additionally, multiple parallel walkers are deployed for each sampling temperature. PTMCMC has been widely used to improve the mixing rate of the sampling. Furthermore, by sampling at several different temperatures, we can assess the effect of the size of the bias to any conclusion drawn from the samples.

We start the UQ process by instantiating MCMC,

from kliff.uq import MCMC

loss = ...  # define the loss function
sampler = MCMC(
loss, nwalkers, logprior_fn, logprior_args, ntemps, Tmax_ratio, Tladder, **kwargs
)


As a default, MCMC inherits from ptemcee.Sampler. The arguments to instantiate the sampler are:

• loss, which is a Loss instance. This is a required argument to construct the untempered likelihood function ( ) and to compute .

• nwalkers specifies the number of parallel walkers to run for each sampling temperature. As a default, this quantity is set to twice the number of parameters in the model.

• logprior_fn argument allows user to specify the prior distribution to use. The function should accept an array of parameter values as an input and compute the logarithm of the prior distribution. Note that the prior distribution doesn’t need to be normalized. The default prior is a uniform distribution over a finite range. See the next argument on how to set the boundaries of the uniform prior.

• logprior_args is a tuple that contains additional positional arguments needed by logprior_fn. If the default uniform prior is used, then the boundaries of the prior support (where ) need to be specified here as a array, where the first and second columns of the array contain the lower and upper bound for each parameter.

• ntemps specifies the number of temperatures to simulate.

• Tmax_ratio is used to set the highest temperature by . An internal function is used to construct a list of logarithmically spaced ntemps points from 1.0 to , inclusive.

• Tladder allows user to specify a list of temperatures to use. This argument will overwrites ntemps and Tmax_ratio.

• Other keyword arguments to be passed into ptemcee.Sampler needs to be specified in kwargs.

After the sampler is created, the MCMC run is done by calling run_mcmc().

p0 = ...  # Define the initial position of each walker
sampler.run_mcmc(p0, iterations, *args, **kwargs)


The required arguments are:

• p0, which is a array containing the position of each walker for each temperature in parameter space, where , , and are the number of temperatures, walkers, and parameters, respectively.

• iterations specifies the number of MCMC step to take. Since the position is step in Markov chain only depends on step , it is possible to break up the MCMC run into smaller batches, with the note that the initial positions of the current run needs to be set to the last positions of the previous run.

The resulting chain can be retrieved from via sampler.chain as a array, where is the total number of iteratiions.

### Parallelization#

In principle, parallelization for the MCMC run can be done in 2 places: in the likelihood (or loss function) evaluation for each parameter set (see Run in parallel mode) and in the likelihood evaluation across different walkers. In the current implementation we supports OpenMP-style parallelization in the loss evaluation and both OpenMP and MPI for the sampling for different walkers when running MCMC sampling.

In general, parallelization in the sampling process is done by declaring a pool and set it to sampler.pool prior to running MCMC, for example:

from multiprocessing import Pool

sampler.pool = Pool(nprocs)  # nprocs is the number of parallel process to use
sampler.run_mcmc(p0, iterations, *args, **kwargs)


To do parallelization with MPI, we can utilize MPIPool from schwimmbad:

from schwimmbad import MPIPool

sampler.pool = MPIPool()
sampler.run_mcmc(p0, iterations, *args, **kwargs)


and run the Python script with mpiexec bash command.

If enough compute resources are available, we can also employ a hybrid parallelization, for example, using multiprocessing in the loss evaluation (by specifying argument nprocs > 1) and MPI in the likelihood evaluation across different walkers. Then, we can run the Python script as follows.

$export MPIEXEC_OPTIONS="--bind-to core --map-by slot:PE=<num_openmp_processes> port-bindings"$ mpiexec -np <num_mpi_workers> \${MPIEXEC_OPTIONS} python script.py


## MCMC analysis#

The chains from the MCMC simulation needs to be processed. In a nutshell, the steps to take are

• Estimate the burn-in time and discard it from the beginning of the chain,

• Estimate the autocorrelation length, , and only take every step from the remaining chain,

• Assess convergence of the samples, i.e., the remaining chain after the two steps above.

### Burn-in time#

First we need to discard the first few iterations in the beginning of each chain as a burn-in time. This is similar to the equilibration time in a molecular dynamics simulation before the measurement. This action also ensure that the result is independent of the initial positions of the walkers.

KLIFF provides a function to estimate the burn-in time, based on the Marginal Standard Error Rule (MSER). This can calculation can be done using the function mser(). However, note that this calculation needs to be performed for each temperature, walker, and parameter dimension separately.

### Autocorrelation length#

In Markov chain, the position at step is not independent from the previous step. However, after several iterations (denote this number by , which is the autocorrelation length), the walker will “forget” where it started, i.e., the position at step is independent from step . Thus, we need to only keep every step to obtain the independent, unceorrelated samples.

The estimation of the autocorrelation length in KLIFF is done via the function autocorr(), which wraps over emcee.autocorr.integrated_time. This calculation needs to be done for each temperature independently. The required input argument is a array, where and are the number of walkers and parameters, respectively, and is the remaining number of iterations after discarding the burn-in time.

### Convergence#

Finally, after a sufficient number of iterations, the distribution of the MCMC samples will converge to the posterior. For multi-chain MCMC simulation, the convergence can be assessed by calculating the multivariate potential scale reduction factor, denoted by . This quantity compares the variance between and within independent chains. The value of declines to 1 as the number of iterations goes to infinity, with a common threshold is about 1.1.

In KLIFF, the function rhat() computes for one temperature. The required input argument is a array of independent samples ( is the number of independent samples in each walker). When the resulting values are larger than the threshold (e.g., 1.1), then the MCMC simulation should be continued until this criteria is satisfied.

Note

Some sampling temperatures might converge at slower rates compared to the others. So, user can terminate the MCMC simulation as long as the samples at the target temperatures, e.g., , have converged.